Post by JSS on Mar 18, 2009 7:52:05 GMT -5
Who'll wear the glass slipper this year?
Last year, Stephen Curry and Davidson were the belles of the ball, making it all the way to the Elite Eight. Who'll be this season's Cinderella? WhatIfSports simulated the tournament 10,000 times and came up with 10 teams that have a good shot at outperforming their seed. See who they are ... and how far they'll go.
13-seed Cleveland State (First Round)
According to 10,000 simulations in WhatIfSports.com's Bracket Preview, the Horizon League champion Cleveland State Vikings, who won at Butler and at Syracuse this year, have a 29.8% chance of upsetting an inconsistent Wake Forest team that finished the year 8-6 in its last 14 games. With Utah in the same region as one of the weaker 5-seeds, CSU has a noteworthy 12.6% likelihood of making the Sweet 16.
14-seed North Dakota State (First Round)
In its first-ever Division I NCAA Tournament, North Dakota State may not be one-and-done. Ben Woodside -- who put up 60 points against fellow tournament team Stephen F. Austin -- and company have a 26 percent shot to knock off the defending champion Kansas Jayhawks. Since Woodside's freshman season, the Bison have won at Wisconsin and at Marquette, so an upset here would not be too surprising.
15-seed Robert Morris (First Round)
They may be a 15-seed, but the Robert Morris Colonials are a legitimate conference (Northeast) power with experience this year against elites Pittsburgh and Xavier. Michigan State has the resume of a strong #2, yet the statistics -- particularly in offensive efficiency -- of a team that could struggle to make the Sweet 16. Robert Morris wins this first-round matchup 33.1% of the time.
14-seed Cornell (First Round)
Despite the fact that Cornell won the Ivy League by three games and has 21 total wins, its place on this list has much more to do with Missouri's struggles in the sim. The Tigers do great with turnover margin, but do not shoot free throws or threes well and have difficulty defending inside and rebounding. Cornell is led by 6-6 forward Ryan Wittman and 7-0 center Jeff Foote, who could have great days. In the analysis, Cornell advances to the second round 40.5% of the time.
12-seed Arizona (Sweet 16)
With a 47.9% chance to win in the first round, Western Kentucky is actually the most likely 12-seed to pull an upset. However, the Hilltoppers would then run into a top-10 team in Gonzaga. Arizona on the other hand, has an easier path to the Sweet 16 facing Utah and then Wake Forest. With future NBA players Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger leading the way, the Wildcats are much better than they have played. Arizona's 21.4% Sweet 16 probability is better than seven first-round favorites.
13-seed Mississippi State (Sweet 16)
It may have snuck into the tournament by winning one of the weakest "BCS" conferences in recent memory, but Mississippi State has all of the pieces to put together a deep run. Anchored by junior Jarvis Varnardo, the Bulldogs are balanced and strong on both ends. After getting by an often-erratic Washington team 54.0% of the time, Mississippi State would likely draw Purdue. Though the Boilermakers are also hot right now, these teams play similar styles and should make for a close contest. Mississippi State is 30.7% likely to make the Sweet 16.
10-seed Minnesota (Elite Eight)
Originally thought to be a bubble team, Minnesota surprisingly got in as a 10-seed. That may not be where the surprises end. The Golden Gophers, who will benefit in the tournament from their great depth, balance and length, have a good draw in what is a wide-open East Region. Minnesota advances past Texas 55.0% of the simulations, into the Sweet 16 25.6% of the time and to the Elite 8 11.9%. Only 19 teams in the entire tournament have greater Elite 8 chances.
6-seed UCLA (Final Four)
Yes, UCLA has 11 national championships to its credit and has appeared in the last three Final Fours. But the tournament committee expects this Bruin team to go down in the second round (and many observers wouldn't be surprised if it happened sooner than that). But don't count them out yet. Among the nation's most efficient teams again this season, UCLA is a serious threat to any team. Though the Bruins have a tough first-round game against VCU, they still find a way to reach the Final Four 10.4% of the time -- better than Duke, Xavier and Florida State in their region.
11-seed Utah State (Final Four)
Utah State is actually the likely team from its part of the bracket to make the Sweet 16, propelling it from a popular first-round upset pick to a very possible Final Four participant. The 30-4 Aggies are shooting 50% from the field and 40% from threes while limiting mistakes. The competition may be better in the tournament, but this is still a team that knows how to win. 56.6% and 35.0% likely to win their first and second round games respectively, the Aggies are a 6.6% favorite to advance to the Final Four.
4-seed Gonzaga (Championship)
You thought Gonzaga shed its Cinderella status a long time ago? You thought wrong. In the last two decades, only one team lower than a No. 3 seed (Arizona, 1997) has won it all. But the 'Zags could change that in 2009. The Bulldogs' starting five and sixth man are as well-constructed and talented as any in the country. The only thing keeping them from the Final Four in Detroit is the overall depth of a UNC team -- the most likely Bracket Preview champion -- that is in the Bulldogs' region. Easily getting by Akron and Illinois/Western Kentucky before facing UNC, Gonzaga is still 32.6% likely to make the Elite 8, 15.8% likely to make the Final Four and 4.8% likely to win the championship.
Last year, Stephen Curry and Davidson were the belles of the ball, making it all the way to the Elite Eight. Who'll be this season's Cinderella? WhatIfSports simulated the tournament 10,000 times and came up with 10 teams that have a good shot at outperforming their seed. See who they are ... and how far they'll go.
13-seed Cleveland State (First Round)
According to 10,000 simulations in WhatIfSports.com's Bracket Preview, the Horizon League champion Cleveland State Vikings, who won at Butler and at Syracuse this year, have a 29.8% chance of upsetting an inconsistent Wake Forest team that finished the year 8-6 in its last 14 games. With Utah in the same region as one of the weaker 5-seeds, CSU has a noteworthy 12.6% likelihood of making the Sweet 16.
14-seed North Dakota State (First Round)
In its first-ever Division I NCAA Tournament, North Dakota State may not be one-and-done. Ben Woodside -- who put up 60 points against fellow tournament team Stephen F. Austin -- and company have a 26 percent shot to knock off the defending champion Kansas Jayhawks. Since Woodside's freshman season, the Bison have won at Wisconsin and at Marquette, so an upset here would not be too surprising.
15-seed Robert Morris (First Round)
They may be a 15-seed, but the Robert Morris Colonials are a legitimate conference (Northeast) power with experience this year against elites Pittsburgh and Xavier. Michigan State has the resume of a strong #2, yet the statistics -- particularly in offensive efficiency -- of a team that could struggle to make the Sweet 16. Robert Morris wins this first-round matchup 33.1% of the time.
14-seed Cornell (First Round)
Despite the fact that Cornell won the Ivy League by three games and has 21 total wins, its place on this list has much more to do with Missouri's struggles in the sim. The Tigers do great with turnover margin, but do not shoot free throws or threes well and have difficulty defending inside and rebounding. Cornell is led by 6-6 forward Ryan Wittman and 7-0 center Jeff Foote, who could have great days. In the analysis, Cornell advances to the second round 40.5% of the time.
12-seed Arizona (Sweet 16)
With a 47.9% chance to win in the first round, Western Kentucky is actually the most likely 12-seed to pull an upset. However, the Hilltoppers would then run into a top-10 team in Gonzaga. Arizona on the other hand, has an easier path to the Sweet 16 facing Utah and then Wake Forest. With future NBA players Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger leading the way, the Wildcats are much better than they have played. Arizona's 21.4% Sweet 16 probability is better than seven first-round favorites.
13-seed Mississippi State (Sweet 16)
It may have snuck into the tournament by winning one of the weakest "BCS" conferences in recent memory, but Mississippi State has all of the pieces to put together a deep run. Anchored by junior Jarvis Varnardo, the Bulldogs are balanced and strong on both ends. After getting by an often-erratic Washington team 54.0% of the time, Mississippi State would likely draw Purdue. Though the Boilermakers are also hot right now, these teams play similar styles and should make for a close contest. Mississippi State is 30.7% likely to make the Sweet 16.
10-seed Minnesota (Elite Eight)
Originally thought to be a bubble team, Minnesota surprisingly got in as a 10-seed. That may not be where the surprises end. The Golden Gophers, who will benefit in the tournament from their great depth, balance and length, have a good draw in what is a wide-open East Region. Minnesota advances past Texas 55.0% of the simulations, into the Sweet 16 25.6% of the time and to the Elite 8 11.9%. Only 19 teams in the entire tournament have greater Elite 8 chances.
6-seed UCLA (Final Four)
Yes, UCLA has 11 national championships to its credit and has appeared in the last three Final Fours. But the tournament committee expects this Bruin team to go down in the second round (and many observers wouldn't be surprised if it happened sooner than that). But don't count them out yet. Among the nation's most efficient teams again this season, UCLA is a serious threat to any team. Though the Bruins have a tough first-round game against VCU, they still find a way to reach the Final Four 10.4% of the time -- better than Duke, Xavier and Florida State in their region.
11-seed Utah State (Final Four)
Utah State is actually the likely team from its part of the bracket to make the Sweet 16, propelling it from a popular first-round upset pick to a very possible Final Four participant. The 30-4 Aggies are shooting 50% from the field and 40% from threes while limiting mistakes. The competition may be better in the tournament, but this is still a team that knows how to win. 56.6% and 35.0% likely to win their first and second round games respectively, the Aggies are a 6.6% favorite to advance to the Final Four.
4-seed Gonzaga (Championship)
You thought Gonzaga shed its Cinderella status a long time ago? You thought wrong. In the last two decades, only one team lower than a No. 3 seed (Arizona, 1997) has won it all. But the 'Zags could change that in 2009. The Bulldogs' starting five and sixth man are as well-constructed and talented as any in the country. The only thing keeping them from the Final Four in Detroit is the overall depth of a UNC team -- the most likely Bracket Preview champion -- that is in the Bulldogs' region. Easily getting by Akron and Illinois/Western Kentucky before facing UNC, Gonzaga is still 32.6% likely to make the Elite 8, 15.8% likely to make the Final Four and 4.8% likely to win the championship.