Post by JSS on Mar 18, 2009 11:56:19 GMT -5
Upset alert: Five first-round games to watch
Honestly, after this topsy-turvy season, will anything that happens in the NCAA Tournament really qualify as an upset? If Louisville, the top overall seed in the tournament, can lose to NIT-bound UNLV at home and by 33 at NIT-bound Notre Dame during the season, should we really be surprised to see multiple wins out of double-digit seeds? There are all sorts of candidates this season.
No. 14 North Dakota State over No. 3 Kansas
If this game was played in Hollywood, the Bison would be a lock to pull off this shocker. North Dakota State owns the best story in the tournament, what with this group of seniors redshirting as freshmen so they'd have one shot at the NCAA Tournament when the school finally became eligible in 2009. Instead, the game will be played in Minneapolis -- just a quick 235-mile road trip from Fargo -- but the opportunity for an upset is still very real. The Bison field a veteran lineup led by scorer Ben Woodside, who went for 60 points in a game against Southland champ Stephen F. Austin early in the year. The Jayhawks, while very talented, are young and have shown that they can be overwhelmed either early in the game -- see losses to Baylor and Texas Tech -- or late in the game -- see the loss at Missouri.
No. 13 Portland State over No. 4 Xavier
The Vikings aren't going to be intimidated by the Musketeers. Not after facing eventual national champ Kansas in the first round last year as a No. 16 seed. Not after winning at Gonzaga this past December and falling by a single point at Washington a few weeks earlier. The Vikings are a balanced squad; four players average at least 11 points, led by 5-foot-6 senior point guard Jeremiah Dominguez. The Musketeers, on the other hand, got a generous No. 4 seed after stumbling down the stretch -- 5-5 in their last 10 games, just 2-5 in their final seven road/neutral site-games -- and have to travel the 1,945 miles to Boise, Idaho, for this contest. Portland State, on the other hand, is just 345 miles away and should have the favor of the crowd -- both because of the proximity and because everyone loves an underdog.
No. 12 Western Kentucky over No. 5 Illinois
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This is bound to be a favorite upset pick in brackets everywhere. There's nothing smooth about the Illini's game -- hard to forget the ugly 38-33 home loss to Penn State -- and Illinois likely will be without senior guard Chester Frazier, who suffered a hand injury during a recent practice. Western Kentucky isn't as good as last year's Courtney Lee-led squad that made it to the Sweet 16, but with guards A.J. Slaughter and Orlando Mendez-Valdez setting the tone, the Hilltoppers could definitely upend a shorthanded Illinois squad.
No. 11 VCU against No. 6 UCLA
Rams guard Eric Maynor was built for the NCAA Tournament. He's the type of senior guard who can dominate a game with his ability to score (22.4 points per game) and put his teammates in position to score with his ability to pass the basketball (6.2 assists per game). Plus, he led the Rams to a tournament upset of Duke when he was a sophomore. And, yes, UCLA has three starters -- Darren Collison, Josh Shipp and Alfred Aboya -- who have been part of back-to-back-to-back Final Four squads, but this game's across the country in Philly, and the Bruins haven't played east of Arizona since early December. Travel matters. If Collison isn't fully healed from his bruised tailbone -- he didn't look right against Southern California in the Pac-10 tournament -- the Bruins could be in trouble.
No. 12 Arizona over No. 5 Utah
This is the "upset" that would almost be more shocking if it doesn't happen. The Utes, who opened the season by losing at home to Division II Southwest Baptist, are probably overseeded by a few notches as a No. 5 after winning the Mountain West tournament. And Arizona, regardless of whether the Wildcats actually deserved the bid, are a talented team capable of playing with almost anyone in the country. And that's why the oddsmakers actually have Arizona, the 12 seed, as the favorite in this game.
Honestly, after this topsy-turvy season, will anything that happens in the NCAA Tournament really qualify as an upset? If Louisville, the top overall seed in the tournament, can lose to NIT-bound UNLV at home and by 33 at NIT-bound Notre Dame during the season, should we really be surprised to see multiple wins out of double-digit seeds? There are all sorts of candidates this season.
No. 14 North Dakota State over No. 3 Kansas
If this game was played in Hollywood, the Bison would be a lock to pull off this shocker. North Dakota State owns the best story in the tournament, what with this group of seniors redshirting as freshmen so they'd have one shot at the NCAA Tournament when the school finally became eligible in 2009. Instead, the game will be played in Minneapolis -- just a quick 235-mile road trip from Fargo -- but the opportunity for an upset is still very real. The Bison field a veteran lineup led by scorer Ben Woodside, who went for 60 points in a game against Southland champ Stephen F. Austin early in the year. The Jayhawks, while very talented, are young and have shown that they can be overwhelmed either early in the game -- see losses to Baylor and Texas Tech -- or late in the game -- see the loss at Missouri.
No. 13 Portland State over No. 4 Xavier
The Vikings aren't going to be intimidated by the Musketeers. Not after facing eventual national champ Kansas in the first round last year as a No. 16 seed. Not after winning at Gonzaga this past December and falling by a single point at Washington a few weeks earlier. The Vikings are a balanced squad; four players average at least 11 points, led by 5-foot-6 senior point guard Jeremiah Dominguez. The Musketeers, on the other hand, got a generous No. 4 seed after stumbling down the stretch -- 5-5 in their last 10 games, just 2-5 in their final seven road/neutral site-games -- and have to travel the 1,945 miles to Boise, Idaho, for this contest. Portland State, on the other hand, is just 345 miles away and should have the favor of the crowd -- both because of the proximity and because everyone loves an underdog.
No. 12 Western Kentucky over No. 5 Illinois
More March Madness coverage
Make your picks today
Sporting News Bracket Challenge
Follow your team's region
East | South | Midwest | West
This is bound to be a favorite upset pick in brackets everywhere. There's nothing smooth about the Illini's game -- hard to forget the ugly 38-33 home loss to Penn State -- and Illinois likely will be without senior guard Chester Frazier, who suffered a hand injury during a recent practice. Western Kentucky isn't as good as last year's Courtney Lee-led squad that made it to the Sweet 16, but with guards A.J. Slaughter and Orlando Mendez-Valdez setting the tone, the Hilltoppers could definitely upend a shorthanded Illinois squad.
No. 11 VCU against No. 6 UCLA
Rams guard Eric Maynor was built for the NCAA Tournament. He's the type of senior guard who can dominate a game with his ability to score (22.4 points per game) and put his teammates in position to score with his ability to pass the basketball (6.2 assists per game). Plus, he led the Rams to a tournament upset of Duke when he was a sophomore. And, yes, UCLA has three starters -- Darren Collison, Josh Shipp and Alfred Aboya -- who have been part of back-to-back-to-back Final Four squads, but this game's across the country in Philly, and the Bruins haven't played east of Arizona since early December. Travel matters. If Collison isn't fully healed from his bruised tailbone -- he didn't look right against Southern California in the Pac-10 tournament -- the Bruins could be in trouble.
No. 12 Arizona over No. 5 Utah
This is the "upset" that would almost be more shocking if it doesn't happen. The Utes, who opened the season by losing at home to Division II Southwest Baptist, are probably overseeded by a few notches as a No. 5 after winning the Mountain West tournament. And Arizona, regardless of whether the Wildcats actually deserved the bid, are a talented team capable of playing with almost anyone in the country. And that's why the oddsmakers actually have Arizona, the 12 seed, as the favorite in this game.