Post by JSS on Mar 18, 2009 13:31:00 GMT -5
msn.foxsports.com/cbk/story/9338666/Breaking-down-the-No.-1-seeds
Louisville
It's seemingly become a yearly occurrence.
Rick Pitino's team starts slow, is written off and then finishes strong.
The Cardinals lost three early games — to Western Kentucky and Minnesota on neutral courts and to UNLV at Freedom Hall.
On New Year's Eve, after the loss to the Running Rebels, just about everyone was questioning whether this was an elite team.
But since then, Louisville has been as good as just about anyone. A last-second home win against rival Kentucky seemed to ignite the Cardinals, who went on to win both the Big East regular-season crown and the league tournament, ending Syracuse's magical run to the finals.
Pitino's team finished 28-5 overall and 16-2 in the Big East.
The critics will say that Louisville didn't have to play UConn or Pittsburgh on the road in the regular season. That they avoided having to play either in the Big East tourney as well.
But the bottom line is they swept the regular campaign and the tourney in the best league in America.
That's certainly worthy of a No. 1 seed this season.
It took time for Pitino to figure out how to play without big man David Padgett, who was last season's facilitator.
The Cardinals don't have a pure point guard who makes their teammates better, so now the majority of the offense goes through 6-foot-5 wing Terrence Williams — one of the nation's most versatile players.
Williams is a strong, tough leader who has improved just about every aspect of his game — most importantly, his leadership abilities.
He helps form one of the most potent frontlines in the entire country — especially if Earl Clark continues to thrive in the postseason as he's done in his career thus far.
The 6-foot-9 Clark is long and athletic and has as much natural ability as just about anyone in the entire country, but the knock is that he doesn't always come to play.
Padgett was replaced by one of the nation's most highly touted freshmen — 6-foot-8 Samardo Samuels. He's powerful and is able to score in the post, but it's taken him time to adapt to the college game.
The backcourt has been the enigma for Pitino. It's almost been a game of musical chairs. Now he's basically settled on a rotation of guards that includes Edgar Sosa, Jerry Smith, Preston Knowles and Andre McGee.
Knowles is the teams top perimeter shooter, but Pitino really never quite knows what he'll get from his backcourt on a game-to-game basis.
Still, Louisville has won 10 straight games and walks in with the swagger of knowing they swept the two top prizes in the best league in America.
That's hard to discount.
Why they'll get to Detroit: Defense — Pitino's team may not swarm opponents with a full-court press, but they have figured out how to wear teams down and attack by forcing turnovers off their press and aggressive zone.
Why they'll flame out early: Pitino doesn't really believe there's a bad 3-point shot — and the Cardinals take plenty of them even though they are an average team at shooting the ball from deep. If they aren't making shots, they could shoot themselves right out of the tourney.
Key to their title hopes: Earl Clark — If he plays like a lottery pick, it's difficult to imagine the Cardinals not having a shot to go to the Final Four. He's so long and talented — and needs to be aggressive in taking the ball to the basket.
Pittsburgh
Toughness.
That's the first word that comes to mind when you talk about Jamie Dixon's Pittsburgh Panthers.
You won't find a tougher trio than seniors Levance Fields and Sam Young and sophomore big man DeJuan Blair in the entire country.
Fields doesn't necessarily look the part — and neither do his sidekicks for that matter. Fields is a stocky 5-foot-10, 215-pound or so point guard who isn't a big-time athlete or a knock-down shooter, but he takes care of the ball (he leads the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio) and makes plays — especially when the game is on the line.
The 6-foot-6 (and that's generous) Young has transformed himself from strictly a post player to someone capable of scoring from all over the court while the 6-foot-7, 265-pound Blair is the nation's leading offensive rebounder, is a double-double machine and has terrific agility for someone his size.
This group has experience and a chip on their shoulder and it's paid dividends. No one on the entire team was a big-time recruit coming out of high school and they play as if they have something to prove each time out.
The Panthers held the top spot in the rankings for the first time in school history this year — on two separate occasions — and also swept UConn in the season series.
Pittsburgh finished 28-4 and had one of the most impressive true road wins of any team in the country when they went to Tallahassee and knocked off Florida State.
But like everyone else, the Panthers had their setbacks. Road losses to Louisville and Villanova were of minimal concern, but a late-season loss at Providence and then a Big East quarterfinal setback to West Virginia had some questioning whether they were still deserving of a No. 1 seed.
The bottom line is that Dixon's team went 15-3 in the elite conference in America and played an above-average non-conference slate as well.
The addition of junior college wing Jermaine Dixon has been critical as he's quickly emerged as a lock-down defender. Senior big man Tyrell Biggs is a solid veteran up front and guys like Gilbert Brown and Brad Wannamaker give the Panthers depth on the wing.
But in order to break that dreaded Sweet 16 jinx, Pittsburgh will rely on its three-headed monster of Young, Blair and Fields.
Why they'll get to Detroit: The Panthers can intimidate opponents with their physicality. No one will be able to push them around. They also aren't the type to overlook anyone, but the bottom line is they have one of the best floor leaders, wings and big men in the country. Not too many teams can lay that claim.
Why they'll flame out early: Perimeter shooting. Freshman Ashton Gibbs is the team's most efficient long-range shooter, but he barely plays. Young shoots 35 percent beyond the arc, but he's not a lights-put guy from three-point range. Don't be shocked if opponents play zone and make the Panthers prove they can make shots.
Key to their title hopes: Blair needs to stay out of foul trouble. In the games when the Panthers have struggled, he's been on the bench after picking up quick fouls. He's going to have to play smart because Pittsburgh doesn't have enough to win without their standout big man.
North Carolina
The Tar Heels were basically handed the national title before the first ball was even tossed up back in November, but they proved they were mortal several times this season — at home against a mediocre Boston College team, on the road against another average team in Maryland and also against a talented Wake Forest club. Then, without Ty Lawson (toe), the Tar Heels bowed out against Florida State on Saturday in the ACC semifinals.
It's easy to focus on the hiccups rather than the 27-3 regular-season record that included an absolutely thrashing of Big Ten champion Michigan State at the site of the Final Four — Detroit's Ford Field — the sweep of Duke and an 13-3 league mark that earned the Tar Heels the ACC regular-season crown.
Roy Williams' Tar Heels, if Lawson is healthy, still have a shot to cut down the nets in Detroit. In fact, they're probably still the favorite to win it all. But remember — this isn't the same team that Williams was planning on having come the postseason.
Starter Marcus Ginyard shut it down after nine games and is done for the season with a stress fracture. Freshman Tyler Zeller returned recently, but missed nearly the entire season with a broken wrist. Reserve William Graves was suspended for the rest of the season and senior guard Bobby Frasor hasn't been the same player he once was after numerous injuries in his career.
The deepest team in America isn't quite so deep any more. In fact, they have become fairly thin — and it's changed how the Tar Heels have been able to play.
However, they can still put points on the board at an alarming rate. Lawson is the key because without him, the Tar Heels are forced to turn over the offense to Larry Drew II — and the freshman just isn't ready. A clear example of how much Lawson means to this team came in the loss to Florida State on Saturday in the ACC tournament semifinals.
Lawson pushes the ball like no other point guard in America, has significantly improved his decision-making and his perimeter shot this season and has plenty of options — Wayne Ellington and Danny Green on the wing as well as Tyler Hansbrough and Deon Thompson in the paint. UNC still has freshman big man Ed Davis and Zeller coming off the bench — as well as Frasor.
While the Tar Heels may not be headed to the Big Dance with exactly what they envisioned prior to the start of the season, they still have a handful of guys who'll be making money playing this game.
Why they'll get to Detroit: They have plenty of weapons and balance. While Tyler Hansbrough won't defend his National Player of the Year honor, he's still one of the elite college big men in the country. Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green and even Deon Thompson are all capable of scoring 20 on any given night. If you don't get back in transition, North Carolina will run it down your throat.
Why they'll flame out early: Defense. Without their top defender, Ginyard, the Tar Heels are an average defensive team — at best. If they get into a half-court game, they could be in trouble.
Key to their title hopes: If North Carolina has a healthy Lawson and the Tar Heels decide to take pride in their defense, they can reel off six straight and cut down the nets at Ford Field — as just about everyone (except for me) expected them to do before the season began.
Connecticut
A couple years ago, many were questioning whether this UConn team would ever contend for a national title.
It was valid since this same group was 17-14 and 6-10 in the Big East.
There were concerns that A.J. Price would never return to the form he showed prior to sitting out his first two years in college due to health and off-court issues.
Whether 7-foot-3 Tanzanian Hasheem Thabeet would develop into anything more than a big man who could block and alter a few shots.
Whether anyone could become a true leader.
Well, it's all fallen into place and the Huskies have slowly grown into a team capable of winning the national title.
Price has shown everyone he's one of the top guards in America by responding to his most recent roadblock, a torn ACL suffered in the first round of last year's NCAA tournament, with a strong senior campaign.
Adrien has thrived in his role and has not only become a double-double machine, but also a quality leader.
And Thabeet has turned into the ultimate difference-maker.
He's become a competent offensive player. However, the key has been on the defensive end — where he's turned into the most intimidating defensive player in college basketball arguably in the last decade.
The Huskies had things clicking and were 22-1 at one point — with the lone loss coming in a shocker at home to begin the Big East slate against Georgetown.
Then Jerome Dyson went down with a season-ending knee injury.
The Huskies lost two games against Pittsburgh and also went down to Syracuse in the epic six-overtime Big East quarterfinal game this past week.
They still finished 27-4 overall and 15-3 in the Big East. They won on the road against Gonzaga and also knocked off Louisville in Freedom Hall.
But those victories came with Dyson in the lineup.
While UConn has a talented freshman in speedy point guard Kemba Walker to move into Dyson's spot, the Huskies are clearly missing the 6-foot-2 junior.
Dyson gave the team an explosive scorer, another shooter from the perimeter to go along with Price, and a tough defender on the wing.
It's a different team now — albeit one that still has the potential to get to the Final Four and even cut down the nets.
Why they'll get to Detroit: The big man in the middle. I've seen guys just flat-out scared to take the ball to the basket with Thabeet waiting to swat their shots. He has terrific timing and moves extremely well for someone his size. There's just no one else like him in the country.
Why they'll flame out early: If the Huskies get down, it'll be interesting to see what happens. Some feel it's a group of front-runners. Remember, this is still a team loaded with players that haven't really won anything yet. They also need to find someone else who can make a few shots from the perimeter besides Price.
Key to their title hopes: If Stanley Robinson doesn't show up. The Alabama native is the X-factor. He spent the first semester away from the team, working, and is an enigma on the court due to his inconsistency. If he comes to play, he'll help ease the loss of Dyson. If not, the Huskies will sorely miss an athletic wing — maybe more on the defensive end than anywhere else.
Louisville
It's seemingly become a yearly occurrence.
Rick Pitino's team starts slow, is written off and then finishes strong.
The Cardinals lost three early games — to Western Kentucky and Minnesota on neutral courts and to UNLV at Freedom Hall.
On New Year's Eve, after the loss to the Running Rebels, just about everyone was questioning whether this was an elite team.
But since then, Louisville has been as good as just about anyone. A last-second home win against rival Kentucky seemed to ignite the Cardinals, who went on to win both the Big East regular-season crown and the league tournament, ending Syracuse's magical run to the finals.
Pitino's team finished 28-5 overall and 16-2 in the Big East.
The critics will say that Louisville didn't have to play UConn or Pittsburgh on the road in the regular season. That they avoided having to play either in the Big East tourney as well.
But the bottom line is they swept the regular campaign and the tourney in the best league in America.
That's certainly worthy of a No. 1 seed this season.
It took time for Pitino to figure out how to play without big man David Padgett, who was last season's facilitator.
The Cardinals don't have a pure point guard who makes their teammates better, so now the majority of the offense goes through 6-foot-5 wing Terrence Williams — one of the nation's most versatile players.
Williams is a strong, tough leader who has improved just about every aspect of his game — most importantly, his leadership abilities.
He helps form one of the most potent frontlines in the entire country — especially if Earl Clark continues to thrive in the postseason as he's done in his career thus far.
The 6-foot-9 Clark is long and athletic and has as much natural ability as just about anyone in the entire country, but the knock is that he doesn't always come to play.
Padgett was replaced by one of the nation's most highly touted freshmen — 6-foot-8 Samardo Samuels. He's powerful and is able to score in the post, but it's taken him time to adapt to the college game.
The backcourt has been the enigma for Pitino. It's almost been a game of musical chairs. Now he's basically settled on a rotation of guards that includes Edgar Sosa, Jerry Smith, Preston Knowles and Andre McGee.
Knowles is the teams top perimeter shooter, but Pitino really never quite knows what he'll get from his backcourt on a game-to-game basis.
Still, Louisville has won 10 straight games and walks in with the swagger of knowing they swept the two top prizes in the best league in America.
That's hard to discount.
Why they'll get to Detroit: Defense — Pitino's team may not swarm opponents with a full-court press, but they have figured out how to wear teams down and attack by forcing turnovers off their press and aggressive zone.
Why they'll flame out early: Pitino doesn't really believe there's a bad 3-point shot — and the Cardinals take plenty of them even though they are an average team at shooting the ball from deep. If they aren't making shots, they could shoot themselves right out of the tourney.
Key to their title hopes: Earl Clark — If he plays like a lottery pick, it's difficult to imagine the Cardinals not having a shot to go to the Final Four. He's so long and talented — and needs to be aggressive in taking the ball to the basket.
Pittsburgh
Toughness.
That's the first word that comes to mind when you talk about Jamie Dixon's Pittsburgh Panthers.
You won't find a tougher trio than seniors Levance Fields and Sam Young and sophomore big man DeJuan Blair in the entire country.
Fields doesn't necessarily look the part — and neither do his sidekicks for that matter. Fields is a stocky 5-foot-10, 215-pound or so point guard who isn't a big-time athlete or a knock-down shooter, but he takes care of the ball (he leads the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio) and makes plays — especially when the game is on the line.
The 6-foot-6 (and that's generous) Young has transformed himself from strictly a post player to someone capable of scoring from all over the court while the 6-foot-7, 265-pound Blair is the nation's leading offensive rebounder, is a double-double machine and has terrific agility for someone his size.
This group has experience and a chip on their shoulder and it's paid dividends. No one on the entire team was a big-time recruit coming out of high school and they play as if they have something to prove each time out.
The Panthers held the top spot in the rankings for the first time in school history this year — on two separate occasions — and also swept UConn in the season series.
Pittsburgh finished 28-4 and had one of the most impressive true road wins of any team in the country when they went to Tallahassee and knocked off Florida State.
But like everyone else, the Panthers had their setbacks. Road losses to Louisville and Villanova were of minimal concern, but a late-season loss at Providence and then a Big East quarterfinal setback to West Virginia had some questioning whether they were still deserving of a No. 1 seed.
The bottom line is that Dixon's team went 15-3 in the elite conference in America and played an above-average non-conference slate as well.
The addition of junior college wing Jermaine Dixon has been critical as he's quickly emerged as a lock-down defender. Senior big man Tyrell Biggs is a solid veteran up front and guys like Gilbert Brown and Brad Wannamaker give the Panthers depth on the wing.
But in order to break that dreaded Sweet 16 jinx, Pittsburgh will rely on its three-headed monster of Young, Blair and Fields.
Why they'll get to Detroit: The Panthers can intimidate opponents with their physicality. No one will be able to push them around. They also aren't the type to overlook anyone, but the bottom line is they have one of the best floor leaders, wings and big men in the country. Not too many teams can lay that claim.
Why they'll flame out early: Perimeter shooting. Freshman Ashton Gibbs is the team's most efficient long-range shooter, but he barely plays. Young shoots 35 percent beyond the arc, but he's not a lights-put guy from three-point range. Don't be shocked if opponents play zone and make the Panthers prove they can make shots.
Key to their title hopes: Blair needs to stay out of foul trouble. In the games when the Panthers have struggled, he's been on the bench after picking up quick fouls. He's going to have to play smart because Pittsburgh doesn't have enough to win without their standout big man.
North Carolina
The Tar Heels were basically handed the national title before the first ball was even tossed up back in November, but they proved they were mortal several times this season — at home against a mediocre Boston College team, on the road against another average team in Maryland and also against a talented Wake Forest club. Then, without Ty Lawson (toe), the Tar Heels bowed out against Florida State on Saturday in the ACC semifinals.
It's easy to focus on the hiccups rather than the 27-3 regular-season record that included an absolutely thrashing of Big Ten champion Michigan State at the site of the Final Four — Detroit's Ford Field — the sweep of Duke and an 13-3 league mark that earned the Tar Heels the ACC regular-season crown.
Roy Williams' Tar Heels, if Lawson is healthy, still have a shot to cut down the nets in Detroit. In fact, they're probably still the favorite to win it all. But remember — this isn't the same team that Williams was planning on having come the postseason.
Starter Marcus Ginyard shut it down after nine games and is done for the season with a stress fracture. Freshman Tyler Zeller returned recently, but missed nearly the entire season with a broken wrist. Reserve William Graves was suspended for the rest of the season and senior guard Bobby Frasor hasn't been the same player he once was after numerous injuries in his career.
The deepest team in America isn't quite so deep any more. In fact, they have become fairly thin — and it's changed how the Tar Heels have been able to play.
However, they can still put points on the board at an alarming rate. Lawson is the key because without him, the Tar Heels are forced to turn over the offense to Larry Drew II — and the freshman just isn't ready. A clear example of how much Lawson means to this team came in the loss to Florida State on Saturday in the ACC tournament semifinals.
Lawson pushes the ball like no other point guard in America, has significantly improved his decision-making and his perimeter shot this season and has plenty of options — Wayne Ellington and Danny Green on the wing as well as Tyler Hansbrough and Deon Thompson in the paint. UNC still has freshman big man Ed Davis and Zeller coming off the bench — as well as Frasor.
While the Tar Heels may not be headed to the Big Dance with exactly what they envisioned prior to the start of the season, they still have a handful of guys who'll be making money playing this game.
Why they'll get to Detroit: They have plenty of weapons and balance. While Tyler Hansbrough won't defend his National Player of the Year honor, he's still one of the elite college big men in the country. Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green and even Deon Thompson are all capable of scoring 20 on any given night. If you don't get back in transition, North Carolina will run it down your throat.
Why they'll flame out early: Defense. Without their top defender, Ginyard, the Tar Heels are an average defensive team — at best. If they get into a half-court game, they could be in trouble.
Key to their title hopes: If North Carolina has a healthy Lawson and the Tar Heels decide to take pride in their defense, they can reel off six straight and cut down the nets at Ford Field — as just about everyone (except for me) expected them to do before the season began.
Connecticut
A couple years ago, many were questioning whether this UConn team would ever contend for a national title.
It was valid since this same group was 17-14 and 6-10 in the Big East.
There were concerns that A.J. Price would never return to the form he showed prior to sitting out his first two years in college due to health and off-court issues.
Whether 7-foot-3 Tanzanian Hasheem Thabeet would develop into anything more than a big man who could block and alter a few shots.
Whether anyone could become a true leader.
Well, it's all fallen into place and the Huskies have slowly grown into a team capable of winning the national title.
Price has shown everyone he's one of the top guards in America by responding to his most recent roadblock, a torn ACL suffered in the first round of last year's NCAA tournament, with a strong senior campaign.
Adrien has thrived in his role and has not only become a double-double machine, but also a quality leader.
And Thabeet has turned into the ultimate difference-maker.
He's become a competent offensive player. However, the key has been on the defensive end — where he's turned into the most intimidating defensive player in college basketball arguably in the last decade.
The Huskies had things clicking and were 22-1 at one point — with the lone loss coming in a shocker at home to begin the Big East slate against Georgetown.
Then Jerome Dyson went down with a season-ending knee injury.
The Huskies lost two games against Pittsburgh and also went down to Syracuse in the epic six-overtime Big East quarterfinal game this past week.
They still finished 27-4 overall and 15-3 in the Big East. They won on the road against Gonzaga and also knocked off Louisville in Freedom Hall.
But those victories came with Dyson in the lineup.
While UConn has a talented freshman in speedy point guard Kemba Walker to move into Dyson's spot, the Huskies are clearly missing the 6-foot-2 junior.
Dyson gave the team an explosive scorer, another shooter from the perimeter to go along with Price, and a tough defender on the wing.
It's a different team now — albeit one that still has the potential to get to the Final Four and even cut down the nets.
Why they'll get to Detroit: The big man in the middle. I've seen guys just flat-out scared to take the ball to the basket with Thabeet waiting to swat their shots. He has terrific timing and moves extremely well for someone his size. There's just no one else like him in the country.
Why they'll flame out early: If the Huskies get down, it'll be interesting to see what happens. Some feel it's a group of front-runners. Remember, this is still a team loaded with players that haven't really won anything yet. They also need to find someone else who can make a few shots from the perimeter besides Price.
Key to their title hopes: If Stanley Robinson doesn't show up. The Alabama native is the X-factor. He spent the first semester away from the team, working, and is an enigma on the court due to his inconsistency. If he comes to play, he'll help ease the loss of Dyson. If not, the Huskies will sorely miss an athletic wing — maybe more on the defensive end than anywhere else.