Post by JSS on Mar 18, 2009 14:24:39 GMT -5
www.cbssports.com/print/collegebasketball/story/11514607
I hear it often -- on TV and radio, from fans and even coaches.
Defense wins championships!
Um, no.
Not in college basketball, it doesn't.
And now seems like a reasonable time to remind everybody of as much, to make sure you understand that a great offense is more important than a great defense on the Road to the Final Four. In fact, recent history suggests the NCAA tournament champion must be among the elite at -- if you'll allow me to simplify -- putting the ball in the basket, which is just one of the reasons to take North Carolina seriously, as well as Pittsburgh, UCLA and Duke.
Those four schools rank first, second, third and fourth in offensive efficiency, defined by KenPom.com as points scored per 100 offensive possessions. This is noteworthy because the past five national champions (Kansas, Florida, Florida, North Carolina and Connecticut) all ranked among the top four in offensive efficiency, proving the ability to score and score often is the single most important quality to achieving greatness.
Sure, a great defense helps, too.
Nobody's disputing that.
But a top-four offense provides success more often than a top-four defense.
Consider: If you take the schools with the four most efficient offenses in the past five seasons, what you'll find is that 11 of 20 made the Final Four, 15 of 20 made the Elite Eight, 18 of 20 made the Sweet Sixteen, and 20 of 20 won at least one NCAA tournament game. Conversely, if you take the schools with the four most efficient defenses in the past five seasons, what you'll find is that eight of 20 made the Final Four, 11 of 20 made the Elite Eight, 15 of 20 made the Sweet Sixteen, but that five of 20 either missed the NCAA tournament completely or lost a first-round game.
Translation: A top-four defense is nice, but it has guaranteed nothing the past five years. A top-four offense, however, has resulted in a Final Four 55 percent of the time, an Elite Eight 75 percent of the time, a Sweet Sixteen 90 percent of the time, and at least one victory in the NCAA tournament 100 percent of the time.
The worst offense to win a title the past five seasons?
UConn in 2004 (No. 4 in offensive efficiency)
The worst offense to play for a title the past two seasons?
Ohio State in 2007 (No. 4) and Memphis (No. 4) in 2008.
In fact, the only schools in the past five seasons to play for a title without a top-four offense were Georgia Tech in 2004 and UCLA in 2006. They both played against top-four offenses on the first Monday in April, both losing by at least nine points despite having top-four defenses.
Why?
Because offense wins championships!
Not defense.
And that's primarily why North Carolina is the favorite to win the NCAA tournament, according to Las Vegas odds makers. The Tar Heels enter their first-round game against Radford averaging 123.8 points per 100 offensive possessions, which is tops in the nation. You can get them at 2-to-1, right now. Just behind UNC is Pittsburgh at 4-to-1, presumably because the Panthers are also just behind UNC in offensive efficiency, averaging 122.9 points per 100 offensive possessions.
All of which is bad news for Stephen F. Austin.
The Lumberjacks average only 96.6 points per 100 offensive possessions, which ranks 242nd nationally. Illinois is the worst from a BCS-affiliated league, averaging just 106.0 points per 100 offensive possessions to rank 97th nationally. So if the Illini are bounced early, by Western Kentucky even, you should understand why immediately.
It won't be because Chester Frazier is sidelined or limited.
It'll be because the Illini aren't good at doing what it takes to be really good.
Which is to say ... score, score, score.
I hear it often -- on TV and radio, from fans and even coaches.
Defense wins championships!
Um, no.
Not in college basketball, it doesn't.
And now seems like a reasonable time to remind everybody of as much, to make sure you understand that a great offense is more important than a great defense on the Road to the Final Four. In fact, recent history suggests the NCAA tournament champion must be among the elite at -- if you'll allow me to simplify -- putting the ball in the basket, which is just one of the reasons to take North Carolina seriously, as well as Pittsburgh, UCLA and Duke.
Those four schools rank first, second, third and fourth in offensive efficiency, defined by KenPom.com as points scored per 100 offensive possessions. This is noteworthy because the past five national champions (Kansas, Florida, Florida, North Carolina and Connecticut) all ranked among the top four in offensive efficiency, proving the ability to score and score often is the single most important quality to achieving greatness.
Sure, a great defense helps, too.
Nobody's disputing that.
But a top-four offense provides success more often than a top-four defense.
Consider: If you take the schools with the four most efficient offenses in the past five seasons, what you'll find is that 11 of 20 made the Final Four, 15 of 20 made the Elite Eight, 18 of 20 made the Sweet Sixteen, and 20 of 20 won at least one NCAA tournament game. Conversely, if you take the schools with the four most efficient defenses in the past five seasons, what you'll find is that eight of 20 made the Final Four, 11 of 20 made the Elite Eight, 15 of 20 made the Sweet Sixteen, but that five of 20 either missed the NCAA tournament completely or lost a first-round game.
Translation: A top-four defense is nice, but it has guaranteed nothing the past five years. A top-four offense, however, has resulted in a Final Four 55 percent of the time, an Elite Eight 75 percent of the time, a Sweet Sixteen 90 percent of the time, and at least one victory in the NCAA tournament 100 percent of the time.
The worst offense to win a title the past five seasons?
UConn in 2004 (No. 4 in offensive efficiency)
The worst offense to play for a title the past two seasons?
Ohio State in 2007 (No. 4) and Memphis (No. 4) in 2008.
In fact, the only schools in the past five seasons to play for a title without a top-four offense were Georgia Tech in 2004 and UCLA in 2006. They both played against top-four offenses on the first Monday in April, both losing by at least nine points despite having top-four defenses.
Why?
Because offense wins championships!
Not defense.
And that's primarily why North Carolina is the favorite to win the NCAA tournament, according to Las Vegas odds makers. The Tar Heels enter their first-round game against Radford averaging 123.8 points per 100 offensive possessions, which is tops in the nation. You can get them at 2-to-1, right now. Just behind UNC is Pittsburgh at 4-to-1, presumably because the Panthers are also just behind UNC in offensive efficiency, averaging 122.9 points per 100 offensive possessions.
All of which is bad news for Stephen F. Austin.
The Lumberjacks average only 96.6 points per 100 offensive possessions, which ranks 242nd nationally. Illinois is the worst from a BCS-affiliated league, averaging just 106.0 points per 100 offensive possessions to rank 97th nationally. So if the Illini are bounced early, by Western Kentucky even, you should understand why immediately.
It won't be because Chester Frazier is sidelined or limited.
It'll be because the Illini aren't good at doing what it takes to be really good.
Which is to say ... score, score, score.