|
Post by BTB07 on Dec 17, 2009 22:36:18 GMT -5
Are they better with Roy Halladay than Cliff Lee? I know part of the problem with Lee was that he wanted more years (6 is reported).
Halladay is certainly a heck of a pitcher, but they gave up Lee and prospects (the ones they didn't want to give away last year at the trade deadline).
It just seems like sort of a lateral move even though they signed Halladay.
I admire how both guys handle their business on the mound, but if they were going to get Halladay and willing to trade Lee why not get Halladay at the deadline last year (giving up the same prospects) and have Halladay and Lee for the run for the title.
Just seems like sort of a strange move to me. Thoughts? Toph?
|
|
|
Post by Bradimous1 on Dec 17, 2009 23:57:06 GMT -5
long run, yes... today, slightly. Halladay may very well be the most consistent pitcher in baseball... that right their is good news for the Phils... plus, this gives them a long term deal with an ace, that they were not going to give to Lee. You have to remember that they got the same amount of prospects back, the same positions as well... they got the Mariners top two pitching prospects and also their number 1 outfild prospect... so they didn't really give up all that much and got themselves in a better position to stay on top long term... I say it is a great deal for them. How can you go wrong with Roy Halladay? JMO
|
|
|
Post by tophb21 on Dec 17, 2009 23:59:47 GMT -5
Not a huge fan of the deal. To be honest, I agree about trading the same prospects for both Lee and Halladay last year if they were going to get rid of Lee this offseason.
That being said, I think they held the option for this year for Lee. I would have still traded for Halladay, and kept Lee. AFter next year, Lee could have walked and they would have received compensatory picks.
Throw in Blanton in the deal if you had to in order to get Halladay.
A top end of Lee and Halladay would have been filthy. Now,they just got rid of their best pitching prospect in exchange for Hallday and the Mariners top pitching prospect. Not sure they got much better by this deal.
|
|
|
Post by BTB07 on Dec 18, 2009 0:12:59 GMT -5
Good points Brad.
I think it might have been better in the long run since they were able to sign Halladay. I might have held on to Lee in part because of what he did in the postseason. If you lose him after the season I think you just take the picks for him.
Did they really need the Mariners to do the deal if they would have offered those prospects to the Blue Jays? I don't think so personally. They would have gotten Halladay and lost their prospects, but had a great starting rotation and Lee certainly would have been an 'A' free agent if he decided to leave. Don't forget Hamels as the third starter is a pretty good option as well (now he is the second starter).
Guess the deal seemed like kind of a wash for the Phillies. The Blue Jays got rid of Halladay and got some good prospects, and the Mariners certainly got better. The Phils seem to be about the same...
|
|
|
Post by tophb21 on Dec 18, 2009 8:20:57 GMT -5
Really, what is the long run? We're talking two years after this upcoming season. They had the option on Lee. I'm fine with getting Halladay. He's a really good pitcher. Who knows he may be viewed a bit like Shilling after he left the Phils. Played on some terrible Philly teams outside of '93 and then went on to star with the Diamondbacks and Sox.
That being said, I think a little more creativity and they probably could have had Lee and Halladay for this year at least. That would have been an insane top end of the rotation.
The Phils don't believe in signing pitching more than 3 years, so I don't think they really addressed a really long term situation.
|
|
|
Post by BTB07 on Dec 18, 2009 10:30:31 GMT -5
That was sort of my line of thinking Toph. I hear long term, but it isn't really all that long term.
They say that they couldn't afford to have both, but if it was just for a season they couldn't have done it, and then gotten the draft picks? I question that honestly.
|
|
|
Post by IrishNY on Dec 18, 2009 11:25:50 GMT -5
That was sort of my line of thinking Toph. I hear long term, but it isn't really all that long term. They say that they couldn't afford to have both, but if it was just for a season they couldn't have done it, and then gotten the draft picks? I question that honestly. I agree with Top's points. I think they should have tried to keep Lee for this year at least. Halladay is a great pitcher so I'm not sure how much "better" they got by making this deal.
|
|
|
Post by BTB07 on Dec 18, 2009 12:26:30 GMT -5
Really if they were going to give up the prospects they should have done it before the trade deadline last year. They would have had Halladay and Lee down the stretch to go with Hamels. They were in great position to be in the playoffs, and that might have put them over the edge.
They would have had Halladay and been able to resign him (like they did) and would have had the rest of the year with Lee, and possibly the option (or the option to trade him in the offseason like they did).
Just doesn't seem like they did things in the right order in this case...but then again I don't run a baseball team.
|
|
|
Post by tophb21 on Dec 18, 2009 12:29:39 GMT -5
The team is built for this coming year for sure. Win it while in the present and then go reload for the future.
A top end of a rotation featuring Halladay and Lee would have been filthy. Not to mention, maybe having both and allowing Hamels to be the number 3 starter could rejuvenate whatever went wrong in his head. If Hamels were to come back to form like he had at the end of '08, then that staff would have been really nasty.
It will still be a very solid staff this year, but having Lee as well would have made it great.
Not to mention, they already know that Lee can pitch well in that band box in Philly. What if Halladay, doesn't adjust to that? That wouldn't be so great.
|
|
|
Post by Bradimous1 on Dec 18, 2009 14:25:42 GMT -5
but wait... if you make the deal for Halladay, you lose three prospects, which can either directly or indirectly assist the Phils. Say for some reason the Phils offense is not working this season, they have these three prospects to trade for someone. It gives them flexibility of adjusting their team the way they need to. Not every team can go out and buy a team, most have to build them within, and the best way to do that is with their minor league players. I really think that this was in the best interest of the Phils.
As for Halladay not adjusting well, name one pitcher that doesn't have better stats when they pitch in the National vs. the American League.
|
|
|
Post by IrishNY on Dec 18, 2009 15:09:47 GMT -5
but wait... if you make the deal for Halladay, you lose three prospects, which can either directly or indirectly assist the Phils. Say for some reason the Phils offense is not working this season, they have these three prospects to trade for someone. It gives them flexibility of adjusting their team the way they need to. Not every team can go out and buy a team, most have to build them within, and the best way to do that is with their minor league players. I really think that this was in the best interest of the Phils. As for Halladay not adjusting well, name one pitcher that doesn't have better stats when they pitch in the National vs. the American League. I have always heard that going from the AL to NL will improve a pitchers ERA by half a run...scary to think about what Hallady will do in the NL He might have a minor adjustment at first but the guy can flat out pitch
|
|
|
Post by BTB07 on Dec 18, 2009 15:26:16 GMT -5
In the case of guys like Clemens, Santana, and other top notch pitchers I saw a stat that said it went down an entire run.
Halladay's ERA in the AL was 2.8...
|
|
|
Post by tophb21 on Dec 18, 2009 16:20:27 GMT -5
Did santana go down a run? I think his stats were better in minny.
As for the flexibility. Gotta be honest, I'm not worried about that line up hitting. I'd rather be totally loaded with pitching. Lee and halladay along with the lineup would give them arguably the best team in mlb. It would be a risk if they didn't win it all, but one I'd be willing to take.
|
|
|
Post by BTB07 on Dec 18, 2009 16:26:05 GMT -5
Santana's ERA in the AL (3.22) Santana's ERA in the NL (2.78)
Guess half a run was a bit closer...
It was Clemens I was thinking of. AL ERA (3.22) NL ERA (2.40)
|
|
|
Post by Bradimous1 on Dec 19, 2009 9:43:16 GMT -5
toph... I completely understand what you are saying... but as a Sox fan, I would tell you that you can have all the pitchers in the world, but you have to put up runs to compete with the Yanks. I understand that the Philly offense is easily the second best lineup in baseball, but it doesn't rival the evil empires, especially when J Bay is added to it.
If I'm GM of Philly, I do exactly the same thing. I look at my team and say, I am still the best team in the NL and are set up to make it to the playoffs, even if someone in the East does catch fire, I still will probably be the wild card, but I don't see anyone in the East ready to compete. I now have this flexibility to make a trade at the deadline to make an improvement where needed. All you need in the playoffs in 3 good starters, and they have that, and lets say that Lidge has some bad arm trouble this season (certainly wouldn't be a shock) and you don't have these prospects, how do you replace him at the trade deadline. Now that you do have him, you can make a 3 way trade with the Sox and someone else so that you can trade your prospects to the 3rd team, who trades a bat to the Sox, and you get Paps... you need this flexibility if you ask me.
|
|
|
Post by tophb21 on Dec 19, 2009 10:54:42 GMT -5
toph... I completely understand what you are saying... but as a Sox fan, I would tell you that you can have all the pitchers in the world, but you have to put up runs to compete with the Yanks. I understand that the Philly offense is easily the second best lineup in baseball, but it doesn't rival the evil empires, especially when J Bay is added to it. If I'm GM of Philly, I do exactly the same thing. I look at my team and say, I am still the best team in the NL and are set up to make it to the playoffs, even if someone in the East does catch fire, I still will probably be the wild card, but I don't see anyone in the East ready to compete. I now have this flexibility to make a trade at the deadline to make an improvement where needed. All you need in the playoffs in 3 good starters, and they have that, and lets say that Lidge has some bad arm trouble this season (certainly wouldn't be a shock) and you don't have these prospects, how do you replace him at the trade deadline. Now that you do have him, you can make a 3 way trade with the Sox and someone else so that you can trade your prospects to the 3rd team, who trades a bat to the Sox, and you get Paps... you need this flexibility if you ask me. The funny thing is Lee dominated the Yanks Lineup and Halladay has had success against them as well. If you keep both, the Phils have more than enough pop in the lineup to hang with the Yanks.
|
|
|
Post by Bradimous1 on Dec 19, 2009 11:12:27 GMT -5
granted... but you but you may be missing another key part at some point... if it is Lidge, you may end up giving up 25 runs in the final inning or 2 or 3. Trust me, I love pitching... I love that the Sox have 3 aces and 2 number 2s on any other team... Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Buckhotz, Dice-K and a very good closer... but still won't beat the Yanks.
For once, agree with me and believe in your Phills that they did the right thing here.
|
|
|
Post by Bradimous1 on Dec 19, 2009 11:22:35 GMT -5
also, I will throw this out there... Cliff Lee hasn't had a stellar career. He has had a decent career with 2 very good years in a row. I don't know how much I trust him to continue this. In 2007, Cliff Lee posted a 6.29 ERA with a 5-8 season. I disagree with anyone that says Halladay isn't an upgrade over Lee as I feel that at any moment, he could digress. In fact, he was that bad in 2007, that he was moved to the pen. In his 6 seasons with 10 or more starts, he has had an ERA under 4 only half of the time. Oh, and last season, his record was 14-13, while Roy's was 17-10... and lets be honest, the Jays were not exactly an offensive powerhouse while playing in the AL East. There really is no comparison to how good Halladay is compared to Lee... Halladay is head and shoulders better, IMHO.
|
|
|
Post by tophb21 on Dec 19, 2009 12:44:05 GMT -5
granted... but you but you may be missing another key part at some point... if it is Lidge, you may end up giving up 25 runs in the final inning or 2 or 3. Trust me, I love pitching... I love that the Sox have 3 aces and 2 number 2s on any other team... Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Buckhotz, Dice-K and a very good closer... but still won't beat the Yanks. For once, agree with me and believe in your Phills that they did the right thing here. I will give you that they need to address Lidge, but they didn't with this move, so I can't agree with you totally. They are exactly the same team this year with the exception of 3rd base, where they upgraded with Polanco. I would take Lee and Halladay over Sabbathia and Burnett everyday of the week and twice on Sunday. Now it's Halladay and Hamels, so it's a push. Granted if Hamels somehow returns to form, they will be fine, but I'd prefer a one year insurance policy with Lee. Oh and I might agree with you bout the Sox b/c they don't have the lineup that the Phils have. Granted Howard, had a bad series, but so didn't Tex. It's not like the Yanks just completely outclassed and outslugged the Phils in the series. Having Halladay AND Lee come postseason gives you a shot to go 9 innings in 4 out of the 7 games and the BP is not nearly as Critical. That is where they would have the leg up on the Yanks.
|
|
|
Post by tophb21 on Dec 19, 2009 12:46:31 GMT -5
also, I will throw this out there... Cliff Lee hasn't had a stellar career. He has had a decent career with 2 very good years in a row. I don't know how much I trust him to continue this. In 2007, Cliff Lee posted a 6.29 ERA with a 5-8 season. I disagree with anyone that says Halladay isn't an upgrade over Lee as I feel that at any moment, he could digress. In fact, he was that bad in 2007, that he was moved to the pen. In his 6 seasons with 10 or more starts, he has had an ERA under 4 only half of the time. Oh, and last season, his record was 14-13, while Roy's was 17-10... and lets be honest, the Jays were not exactly an offensive powerhouse while playing in the AL East. There really is no comparison to how good Halladay is compared to Lee... Halladay is head and shoulders better, IMHO. If Lee had pitched the entire season with the Phils last year, he wins 20+ games in his sleep. The Indians were one of the 3 worst teams in baseball. Bad comparison. Yes, Lee does not have the depth of work in his career, but he hasn't indicated that he's heading into regression mode either.
|
|
|
Post by tophb21 on Dec 19, 2009 12:49:04 GMT -5
Oh and don't misread my points that I would rather have Lee over Halladay completely. I'm being spoiled and want them BOTHfor one year and then deal with the rest later. It could have been done.
The team may look very different after next year anyways. Ibanez will have one year left, Rollins is getting older, Howard will need to get paid and paid big time for a long term deal, among other things. Next year is the year to put all the chips on the table and make a huge run.
Edit to add that they have the following players they have to deal with next year:
Victorino Werth Rollins
2011- Howard and Ibanez.
Thus my point is you are going to have to make decisions after next year and the team may look a lot different. That being said, I understand building through prospects b/c the Phils have done well with that lately. However, with so much about to change after next year, what's the big deal of knowing that you probably lose Lee after next year. Take the Compensatory Picks at the end of the first round which can be solid and make the investment in next year. It's not like the team is locked up after next year. Hell even Halladay is done after 2012.
Win NOW!! You're set up to do so more than any other team other than the Yanks.
Can't compare the Phils and Sox, b/c IMO the lineups are totally different and you're right that the Sox don't have the bats to compete right now even with all the pitching with the Yanks.
|
|
|
Post by Bradimous1 on Dec 19, 2009 20:49:58 GMT -5
I don't know what the revenue is brought in by the Phils, but I would assume, even as payroll has gone up in the past 5 years, that revenue has gone up at a faster pace (correct me if I am wrong) and they won't mind spending money... your point is exactly why I say they are better long run. If they don't have to address anything major at the deadline, they have those prospects who, in theory at least, will be werth (you have to excuse the pun, but I think he is a major part of the Phils that gets overlooked so I had to throw it in there) more next year to either trade to replace any of the guys leaving. Having these three prospects is key to the Phils in the future.
I also agree that the Sox don't have the bats... Theo told us that this was a bridge year and that is what I am expecting... not sure a bridge year includes going out and getting the best pitching free agent though, so I kind of have my hopes up that the trade for Gonzalez goes through at the trade deadline... someone close to him reported it was close to being done and I got my hopes up, but Peter Gammons brought me back down to earth.
|
|
|
Post by tophb21 on Dec 19, 2009 21:38:33 GMT -5
Here's the thing I will say about the Seattle prospects. They are much like CFB recruiting for me and Seattle hasn't necessarily shown recently that they've done a great job of raising solid talent in their system thus how valuable are these prospects? So by the fact that I'm not necessarily sold on those prospects, I would rather have Lee and one huge push towards a WS and worry about 2011 at the end of next year.
I will agree a ton about the value of Werth. He stepped up big time this year.
|
|
|
Post by Bradimous1 on Dec 20, 2009 0:37:06 GMT -5
Werth was werth a hell of a lot last season as well (did you see how I did that)... where did Felix Hernandez come from... was he one of there prospects... no matter what team you are, you develope prospects and hit on some, and miss on some.... I would venture to guess the smaller market and not nearly as good teams are just as good... look at Pittsburgh, they put as many players into the majors as anyone... other than Boston of course face it, I am right on this one... enjoy the season of dominating the NL
|
|
|
Post by tophb21 on Dec 20, 2009 9:33:18 GMT -5
Werth was werth a hell of a lot last season as well (did you see how I did that)... where did Felix Hernandez come from... was he one of there prospects... no matter what team you are, you develope prospects and hit on some, and miss on some.... I would venture to guess the smaller market and not nearly as good teams are just as good... look at Pittsburgh, they put as many players into the majors as anyone... other than Boston of course face it, I am right on this one... enjoy the season of dominating the NL I will say that I hope that you are right and I have no doubt the Phils can make it into the NL Playoffs and probably to the series. Really, I just need Lee for the WS. Think Selig will approve a 60 day day rental for Sept and Oct? ;D
|
|
|
Post by Bradimous1 on Dec 21, 2009 10:47:28 GMT -5
Werth was werth a hell of a lot last season as well (did you see how I did that)... where did Felix Hernandez come from... was he one of there prospects... no matter what team you are, you develope prospects and hit on some, and miss on some.... I would venture to guess the smaller market and not nearly as good teams are just as good... look at Pittsburgh, they put as many players into the majors as anyone... other than Boston of course face it, I am right on this one... enjoy the season of dominating the NL I will say that I hope that you are right and I have no doubt the Phils can make it into the NL Playoffs and probably to the series. Really, I just need Lee for the WS. Think Selig will approve a 60 day day rental for Sept and Oct? ;D interesting idea... but you can have Lee, I will take Pujols. Then we don't have to worry about the Yanks.
|
|
|
Post by BTB07 on Dec 21, 2009 22:26:59 GMT -5
Werth was werth a hell of a lot last season as well (did you see how I did that)... where did Felix Hernandez come from... was he one of there prospects... no matter what team you are, you develope prospects and hit on some, and miss on some.... I would venture to guess the smaller market and not nearly as good teams are just as good... look at Pittsburgh, they put as many players into the majors as anyone... other than Boston of course face it, I am right on this one... enjoy the season of dominating the NL I will say that I hope that you are right and I have no doubt the Phils can make it into the NL Playoffs and probably to the series. Really, I just need Lee for the WS. Think Selig will approve a 60 day day rental for Sept and Oct? ;D That rotation would have been great, but I guess they wanted the prospects back as well...I might have taken a run for it in '10 and tried to figure out all the other pieces and who you were going to pay after that (gotta win a W.S. when you have a window to).
|
|
|
Post by tophb21 on Dec 22, 2009 8:18:33 GMT -5
I will say that I hope that you are right and I have no doubt the Phils can make it into the NL Playoffs and probably to the series. Really, I just need Lee for the WS. Think Selig will approve a 60 day day rental for Sept and Oct? ;D That rotation would have been great, but I guess they wanted the prospects back as well...I might have taken a run for it in '10 and tried to figure out all the other pieces and who you were going to pay after that (gotta win a W.S. when you have a window to). That's what I've said all along. Thanks for a agreeing with me. That's enough to make it a majority. Once again, I am right and the UT step child is wrong. ;D J/K Brad!
|
|
|
Post by Bradimous1 on Dec 22, 2009 10:19:48 GMT -5
That rotation would have been great, but I guess they wanted the prospects back as well...I might have taken a run for it in '10 and tried to figure out all the other pieces and who you were going to pay after that (gotta win a W.S. when you have a window to). That's what I've said all along. Thanks for a agreeing with me. That's enough to make it a majority. Once again, I am right and the UT step child is wrong. ;D J/K Brad! wait, wait, wait... I look at the Phils and see the possibility of them being like the Sox or Yanks... they could win the WS every year. If you want to go back to the Phils of the 90s, feel free. I was trying to keep that window open indefinately. Ownership knows what winning a WS can do revenue wise, so why wouldn't they continue to put money into their players and player development? Actually, UT wins, Big Ten loses... WOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOO!!!
|
|
|
Post by tophb21 on Dec 22, 2009 10:41:08 GMT -5
That's what I've said all along. Thanks for a agreeing with me. That's enough to make it a majority. Once again, I am right and the UT step child is wrong. ;D J/K Brad! wait, wait, wait... I look at the Phils and see the possibility of them being like the Sox or Yanks... they could win the WS every year. If you want to go back to the Phils of the 90s, feel free. I was trying to keep that window open indefinately. Ownership knows what winning a WS can do revenue wise, so why wouldn't they continue to put money into their players and player development? Actually, UT wins, Big Ten loses... WOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOO!!! Unfortunately, the Phils don't have the national and international following of the Sox or Yanks, thus sustaining it would be difficult but could be achieved if done the right way. They will never have the same revenue streams as either of those two teams, as much as I would love to believe that to be untrue. Thus, your logic is trumped again by logic that is more realistic. PSU wins yet another bowl game against the Vols! ;D
|
|