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Post by dubldeac on Jan 16, 2015 0:11:16 GMT -5
OK, swan, let's hammer out the details.
At 3 years, if you're right, Jameis will clearly be a bust. How do you define that?
I say he won't be a bust but will probably be pretty good. I want this to be about his ability in the field. If he blows up off the field (rape, DUI, theft, drug suspension), the bet is off.
Agreed?
Now tell me how you define a bust so we can clearly decide if you win the bet.
I will post my criteria for success, and then we can decide the stakes.
I'd also like a 1 or 2 year clause at the end that either of us can invoke to delay the reckoning by that amount of time if its not clear (a la Mark Sanchez at 3 years). But if you invoke the clause the stakes increase (I say double but we can negotiate that).
What say you?
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Post by zacharyjarm on Jan 16, 2015 1:12:59 GMT -5
Hard to define a bust. If you are the #1 pick a bust is different than a guy taken in the 2nd round. Look at Trent Richardson, he is clearly a bust for his draft position. I wouldn't say he is overall he is a horrible player as he has almost 3,000 yards from scrimmage with 19 TDs in three years. He is clearly not worth the spot he was taken at in the draft. I would say he is a mediocre NFL RB. So if Winston is mediocre, I would say that would make him a bust seeing how he will probably be a top 3 pick. This is your guys bet I just find it interesting when people call players complete busts when in actuality they are just average players or 2nd tier players, which IMO isn't a complete bust.
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Post by tophb21 on Jan 16, 2015 8:52:03 GMT -5
I'm in on the bet as well. My biggest concern is what is at stake? I'll take Bourbon, should Winston turn out fine. Zach brings up a good point. Richardson may not be active for this weekend's game, but he was somewhat productive, but nothing like he should have been given the position. I would say that the definition for bust for Winston should be along the lines of out of the league or a backup QB because his numbers on the field indicate that he should be a back up. Given the less than 1% chance that someone takes him #1 and sits him for 3 years before starting, I would say would have to invoke the clause. I don't see that as likely. What about an injury clause?
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Post by erock72 on Jan 16, 2015 9:06:27 GMT -5
Hard to define a bust. If you are the #1 pick a bust is different than a guy taken in the 2nd round. Look at Trent Richardson, he is clearly a bust for his draft position. I wouldn't say he is overall he is a horrible player as he has almost 3,000 yards from scrimmage with 19 TDs in three years. He is clearly not worth the spot he was taken at in the draft. I would say he is a mediocre NFL RB. So if Winston is mediocre, I would say that would make him a bust seeing how he will probably be a top 3 pick. This is your guys bet I just find it interesting when people call players complete busts when in actuality they are just average players or 2nd tier players, which IMO isn't a complete bust. I do not know what is going on with Richardson, but Indy has no run game and he was a healthy scratch from last weeks game. Something isn't right
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Post by tonythegator on Jan 16, 2015 9:09:53 GMT -5
I'm in on the bet as well. My biggest concern is what is at stake? I'll take Bourbon, should Winston turn out fine. Zach brings up a good point. Richardson may not be active for this weekend's game, but he was somewhat productive, but nothing like he should have been given the position. I would say that the definition for bust for Winston should be along the lines of out of the league or a backup QB because his numbers on the field indicate that he should be a back up. Given the less than 1% chance that someone takes him #1 and sits him for 3 years before starting, I would say would have to invoke the clause. I don't see that as likely. What about an injury clause? Sounds like too many ifs, ands, and buts to make a bet on this.
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Post by NCBulldawg on Jan 16, 2015 12:37:54 GMT -5
I would refer you all to Cam Newton. Is he a bust? I would say far from it, but he certainly is not performing to the level he desires, and that is being an elite QB with all the fame and fortune that comes with it. He fumbles the ball… a lot. 9 times this season. 10, two years ago. Threw 12 INT's this year. Has been injured. Overthrows WR's often. Won one Playoff game in four years, and that was on this year's losing record team.
Is he a "Bust"? Just something to think about when determining if one is a bust, or not.
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Post by tophb21 on Jan 16, 2015 12:49:17 GMT -5
I would refer you all to Cam Newton. Is he a bust? I would say far from it, but he certainly is not performing to the level he desires, and that is being an elite QB with all the fame and fortune that comes with it. He fumbles the ball… a lot. 9 times this season. 10, two years ago. Threw 12 INT's this year. Has been injured. Overthrows WR's often. Won one Playoff game in four years, and that was on this year's losing record team. Is he a "Bust"? Just something to think about when determining if one is a bust, or not. He's been to a few playoffs. Far from a bust. Do I want him as QB of my team? Nope! They're going to get him killed with him running all over the place and him not knowing how to slide (or not wanting to)
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Post by tophb21 on Jan 16, 2015 12:52:45 GMT -5
Hard to define a bust. If you are the #1 pick a bust is different than a guy taken in the 2nd round. Look at Trent Richardson, he is clearly a bust for his draft position. I wouldn't say he is overall he is a horrible player as he has almost 3,000 yards from scrimmage with 19 TDs in three years. He is clearly not worth the spot he was taken at in the draft. I would say he is a mediocre NFL RB. So if Winston is mediocre, I would say that would make him a bust seeing how he will probably be a top 3 pick. This is your guys bet I just find it interesting when people call players complete busts when in actuality they are just average players or 2nd tier players, which IMO isn't a complete bust. I do not know what is going on with Richardson, but Indy has no run game and he was a healthy scratch from last weeks game. Something isn't right I think he dances around in the backfield too much and doesn't make quick decisions to hit the hole when it appears. He's not that shifty and he's not as powerful as what he appeared to be in college.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2015 13:24:06 GMT -5
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Post by tonythegator on Jan 16, 2015 14:17:24 GMT -5
Was Tebow a bust?
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Post by NCBulldawg on Jan 16, 2015 14:24:28 GMT -5
I would have to say yes, in the sense he could not get further employment at his chosen profession, that being a QB in the NFL. When no one will hire you for what you do, and that is only after three years in the league, then yes, I would say bust. It is a harsh term, as he did have some successes on the field. But, that does not outweigh the fact that no one else wants you on their team as a QB. Maybe if rosters were 58, he would find a place. Maybe. But, now, no. Therefore, bust, in my humble opinion. And, no, has nothing to do with him having been a Gator. I admire the young man.
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Post by tonythegator on Jan 16, 2015 14:35:28 GMT -5
I would have to say yes, in the sense he could not get further employment at his chosen profession, that being a QB in the NFL. When no one will hire you for what you do, and that is only after three years in the league, then yes, I would say bust. It is a harsh term, as he did have some successes on the field. But, that does not outweigh the fact that no one else wants you on their team as a QB. Maybe if rosters were 58, he would find a place. Maybe. But, now, no. Therefore, bust, in my humble opinion. And, no, has nothing to do with him having been a Gator. I admire the young man. Yes, but he had a winning record and a playoff win. Still a bust?
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Post by bamainmt on Jan 16, 2015 14:36:37 GMT -5
I would define EJ manuel as a bust. An up and coming QB, that they had to bring in a weak veteran to replace.
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Post by bilogle on Jan 16, 2015 14:40:50 GMT -5
Ryan Leaf was a bust......... also busted several times
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Post by tophb21 on Jan 16, 2015 14:41:51 GMT -5
I would have to say yes, in the sense he could not get further employment at his chosen profession, that being a QB in the NFL. When no one will hire you for what you do, and that is only after three years in the league, then yes, I would say bust. It is a harsh term, as he did have some successes on the field. But, that does not outweigh the fact that no one else wants you on their team as a QB. Maybe if rosters were 58, he would find a place. Maybe. But, now, no. Therefore, bust, in my humble opinion. And, no, has nothing to do with him having been a Gator. I admire the young man. Yes, but he had a winning record and a playoff win. Still a bust? He was in and out of the league in 3 years. Doesn't exactly say success, does it?
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Post by cobrakai on Jan 16, 2015 14:46:21 GMT -5
I would have to say yes, in the sense he could not get further employment at his chosen profession, that being a QB in the NFL. When no one will hire you for what you do, and that is only after three years in the league, then yes, I would say bust. It is a harsh term, as he did have some successes on the field. But, that does not outweigh the fact that no one else wants you on their team as a QB. Maybe if rosters were 58, he would find a place. Maybe. But, now, no. Therefore, bust, in my humble opinion. And, no, has nothing to do with him having been a Gator. I admire the young man. Yes, but he had a winning record and a playoff win. Still a bust? I think the fact that he couldn't land a job even though his team had a winning record in the games he started makes it apparent he was a bust.
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Post by tonythegator on Jan 16, 2015 14:49:55 GMT -5
Yes, but he had a winning record and a playoff win. Still a bust? He was in and out of the league in 3 years. Doesn't exactly say success, does it? No, but I'm just trying to make a point. You guys are discussing a bet, and the definitions of the bet are just so vague. One person's definition might be completely different than the other.
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Post by NCBulldawg on Jan 16, 2015 16:37:43 GMT -5
And, that too, Tony, is why I offered up Cam Newton. As an example of a #1 pick and how to decide if he is a "bust", or not. Not a bust, but not what many hoped. Cam isn't living up to the desires of the fan base, nor himself.
My whole deal on Cam, and a side note, is that he is about to renegotiate his new contract, and the $$$ amounts are silly that are tossed around. I just don't think he needs to become a $100 million dollar man with what he has accomplished. Especially with his injuries that have popped up. His intangibles are incredible. His reality has a little to be desired, imo. But, really now, where would he rank in a list of Best to Worst QB's in the NFL?
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Post by tophb21 on Jan 16, 2015 17:12:11 GMT -5
Why the hell are you guys so concerned with the parameters of a bet that you aren't even taking part?? Now I would like NCBD to come in on Swan's side. That would be the KOD for Swan.
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Post by tophb21 on Jan 16, 2015 17:14:02 GMT -5
He was in and out of the league in 3 years. Doesn't exactly say success, does it? No, but I'm just trying to make a point. You guys are discussing a bet, and the definitions of the bet are just so vague. One person's definition might be completely different than the other. I think actually we could define it like Tebew's career. If he's in and out of the league in 3 years because nobody wants him to play football on their team (non injury related), then he's a bust.
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Post by theswan on Jan 16, 2015 17:14:22 GMT -5
I don't have a lot of time right now, it's been a busy day. Sounds good though. Maybe later tonight we can hammer out more of the details.
3 years sounds good. If he goes to team that wants him to sit while they develop him, then we can extend.
In the event I lose if it's bourbon you want then that's cool with me. My liquor drinking days are finished. I'm good with the equivalent in IPA's....
I'll try to get back later tonight
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Post by tophb21 on Jan 16, 2015 17:22:28 GMT -5
I don't have a lot of time right now, it's been a busy day. Sounds good though. Maybe later tonight we can hammer out more of the details. 3 years sounds good. If he goes to team that wants him to sit while they develop him, then we can extend. In the event I lose if it's bourbon you want then that's cool with me. My liquor drinking days are finished. I'm good with the equivalent in IPA's.... I'll try to get back later tonight Good choice on the IPA's.
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Post by groot on Jan 16, 2015 17:38:35 GMT -5
Simple rules:
1. Has he made a Pro Bowl? 2. Has he been arrested &/or charged with a felony?
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Post by NCBulldawg on Jan 16, 2015 18:29:11 GMT -5
Why the hell are you guys so concerned with the parameters of a bet that you aren't even taking part?? Now I would like NCBD to come in on Swan's side. That would be the KOD for Swan. Hey now! WTF?
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Post by dubldeac on Jan 16, 2015 22:23:27 GMT -5
Here my take: out of the league at 3 years is obviously a bust. But I would say if he's not solidly entrenched as the starter he's a bust. (Can Newton is solidly the Panthers starter). EJ Manuel would be a bust to me, benched before the end of his second season. Jake Locker is a bust.
I think if there are serious questions about whether he will be the unopposed starter for his team by the end of his third season, you win. If he is, no matter how pedestrian his stats, I win. Bets is off if he misses more than 6 games due to injuries. If he sits his whole first year or most of it, may need to invoke the Alex Smith clause. If the status is totally unclear then we invoke the Sanchize clause.
A bottle of scotch for me.
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Post by tophb21 on Jan 16, 2015 22:32:07 GMT -5
Here my take: out of the league at 3 years is obviously a bust. But I would say if he's not solidly entrenched as the starter he's a bust. (Can Newton is solidly the Panthers starter). EJ Manuel would be a bust to me, benched before the end of his second season. Jake Locker is a bust. I think if there are serious questions about whether he will be the unopposed starter for his team by the end of his third season, you win. If he is, no matter how pedestrian his stats, I win. Bets is off if he misses more than 6 games due to injuries. If he sits his whole first year or most of it, may need to invoke the Alex Smith clause. If the status is totally unclear then we invoke the Sanchize clause. A bottle of scotch for me. I'm good with those parameters. I'll bring my bottle of Bourbon and combine with the bottle of your Scotch and we can have a helluva weekend watching football.
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Post by theswan on Jan 17, 2015 11:40:36 GMT -5
Here my take: out of the league at 3 years is obviously a bust. But I would say if he's not solidly entrenched as the starter he's a bust. (Can Newton is solidly the Panthers starter). EJ Manuel would be a bust to me, benched before the end of his second season. Jake Locker is a bust. I think if there are serious questions about whether he will be the unopposed starter for his team by the end of his third season, you win. If he is, no matter how pedestrian his stats, I win. Bets is off if he misses more than 6 games due to injuries. If he sits his whole first year or most of it, may need to invoke the Alex Smith clause. If the status is totally unclear then we invoke the Sanchize clause. A bottle of scotch for me. What is Smith clause? Sanchez? The only thing I'm concerned is the starter in the year 3 deal. Geno Smith could possibly be the Jets starter next year in his 3td season. What if we say he has to have a QB rating of at least 75. That's a pretty low number. Unless of course he doesn't somehow get drafted in the 1st round. Am I the only one who thinks it's bad to the bone that one of us wants bourbon...one scotch.......and one beer?
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Post by tophb21 on Jan 17, 2015 13:05:37 GMT -5
Here my take: out of the league at 3 years is obviously a bust. But I would say if he's not solidly entrenched as the starter he's a bust. (Can Newton is solidly the Panthers starter). EJ Manuel would be a bust to me, benched before the end of his second season. Jake Locker is a bust. I think if there are serious questions about whether he will be the unopposed starter for his team by the end of his third season, you win. If he is, no matter how pedestrian his stats, I win. Bets is off if he misses more than 6 games due to injuries. If he sits his whole first year or most of it, may need to invoke the Alex Smith clause. If the status is totally unclear then we invoke the Sanchize clause. A bottle of scotch for me. What is Smith clause? Sanchez? The only thing I'm concerned is the starter in the year 3 deal. Geno Smith could possibly be the Jets starter next year in his 3td season. What if we say he has to have a QB rating of at least 75. That's a pretty low number. Unless of course he doesn't somehow get drafted in the 1st round. Am I the only one who thinks it's bad to the bone that one of us wants bourbon...one scotch.......and one beer? A baseline of 75% passer rating and starting going into this 4th year. Can't be Tebow who was in the league for 3 years and then out in the 4th. I believe the Alex Smith clause is that he sat a year, but is still solidly a starter.
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Post by theswan on Jan 17, 2015 13:16:56 GMT -5
What is Smith clause? Sanchez? The only thing I'm concerned is the starter in the year 3 deal. Geno Smith could possibly be the Jets starter next year in his 3td season. What if we say he has to have a QB rating of at least 75. That's a pretty low number. Unless of course he doesn't somehow get drafted in the 1st round. Am I the only one who thinks it's bad to the bone that one of us wants bourbon...one scotch.......and one beer? A baseline of 75% passer rating and starting going into this 4th year. Can't be Tebow who was in the league for 3 years and then out in the 4th. I believe the Alex Smith clause is that he sat a year, but is still solidly a starter. Sounds fair to me. Deal
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Post by zacharyjarm on Jan 17, 2015 13:30:44 GMT -5
Here my take: out of the league at 3 years is obviously a bust. But I would say if he's not solidly entrenched as the starter he's a bust. (Can Newton is solidly the Panthers starter). EJ Manuel would be a bust to me, benched before the end of his second season. Jake Locker is a bust. I think if there are serious questions about whether he will be the unopposed starter for his team by the end of his third season, you win. If he is, no matter how pedestrian his stats, I win. Bets is off if he misses more than 6 games due to injuries. If he sits his whole first year or most of it, may need to invoke the Alex Smith clause. If the status is totally unclear then we invoke the Sanchize clause. A bottle of scotch for me. What is Smith clause? Sanchez? The only thing I'm concerned is the starter in the year 3 deal. Geno Smith could possibly be the Jets starter next year in his 3td season. What if we say he has to have a QB rating of at least 75. That's a pretty low number. Unless of course he doesn't somehow get drafted in the 1st round. Am I the only one who thinks it's bad to the bone that one of us wants bourbon...one scotch.......and one beer? Great song.
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